James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of the Crowds
Tap into collective intelligence
wisdom of the crowds + new tools = radical transformation
jellybean experiment- how many jellybeans in the jar?
- no one person comes closer than the group guess
- the more they do this as a group, individuals begin to get closer
Who wants to be a millionaire?
- poll the audience (gets it right 91% of the time)
- prediction machine in action
- look at odds- in the course of a season, crowd of betters can forecast the winners
Google- founders realized that there is a hidden talent beneath the surface
What does it take to make a crowd wise?
- some way to group judgements (aggregate the information to get group decision)
- diversity (the fundamental characteristic)-cognitively diverse in the way they approach and solve problems; best of the best group is out performed by the random group; other diversity (age, experience, culture, geography, discipline); less likely to make the same mistakes (homogeneous group: the more they talk, the dumber they become-echo chamber); appoint someone to become the devil’s advocate (originated in the catholic church)-cannot have the same person as the devil’s advocate all of the time
- independence-want people to think for themselves; imitation works a lot of the time; have to get people to get beyond imitation; best group decisions come from conflict rather than consensus (differences of opinion can make us smarter-have a good fight; even if the answer is not your answer)
Technology allows more people to contribute and say what they really believe in their hearts.